We build our own models, one per sport, and price every game against the live market. When a model disagrees with the number by enough to matter, a pick triggers, gets logged at that line, and is graded in public when the game ends.
TRACK RECORD
Each model keeps its own ledger. No combined house record, because the models do different jobs at different risk. Every settled pick is public, no login needed.
THE OFFER
NFL · CFB · CBB · MLB · NBA · Golf picks delivered the moment they trigger
with email, text and Telegram alerts, the odds board, the bet tracker, and public results. 10-day free trial, no card charged until day 11.
WHAT WE'RE NOT
Random picks to pad a win record
20+ plays a day is noise, not signal
Narrative-driven "the team is hot" analysis
Models do not care about momentum stories
"Locks", "5-star plays", or tout hype
If every pick is a lock, none of them are
JUST DISCIPLINED, MODEL-DRIVEN EDGES.
METHODOLOGY
Each sport gets a model we built: team strength from play efficiency for football, possession efficiency and pace for basketball, run-based ratings with the starter for baseball, tournament probabilities for golf. It prices every game before the market does.
The engine pulls live lines from the major sportsbooks all day and compares every game to the model. For priced markets it nets out the vig and works in probabilities. For spreads and totals it works in points.
Every model runs under a written trigger: 8 points in the NFL, 4 in college football, 8 against the 10 AM line in college basketball, a probability edge by market in golf. When the gap clears the rule, the pick publishes and the line it published at is frozen.
The pick is logged at its trigger line and graded against that line when the game ends, never a better number found later. The line is tracked to kickoff so you can see whether the market came toward us.
SPREADS AND TOTALS
Football and basketball work in points. The rule is a minimum number of points of disagreement, set per sport from what held up across seasons.
PRICED MARKETS
Baseball and golf are priced in odds. The market's implied probability has the vig removed first, so a positive edge means the book has genuinely underpriced the bet.
COVERAGE
Every model is ours, named for what it measures, and runs under a trigger that is published along with its record.
One overall strength rating per team, built from play efficiency on both sides of the ball and adjusted for opponents. The NFL market is the sharpest there is, so the bar is high on purpose: fewer picks, none of them coin flips dressed up as edges.
TRIGGER
A pick publishes when the model's number sits 8 or more points from the market spread.
LINE TRACKING
The line is watched from the trigger to kickoff. Toward means the market came our way; away means it did not.
GRADING
Scored at the line posted when the pick published, flat one unit, -110.
HISTORY
Season by season and by size of the edge on the performance page.
One overall strength rating per team, updated every week of the season. Picks are tiered by the size of the disagreement: Good at 4 to 5.4 points, Strong at 5.5 to 6.9, Elite at 7 and up, and every tier's record is published so you can see which ones actually win.
TRIGGER
4 or more points between the model and the market. Four is where a disagreement stops being noise in college football.
TIERS
Good, Strong and Elite by edge size, each with its own public record.
WEEKLY
Ratings refresh each week; the card builds as lines post and refreshes as the week goes.
GRADING
Scored at the trigger line, flat one unit, -110.
Possession-based efficiency: points per possession on both ends, shooting, turnovers, rebounding and pace, adjusted for schedule. Every morning at 10 AM Eastern it prices the day's games against the line on the board at that moment.
TRIGGER
A pick publishes when the gap to the 10 AM line is 8 or more points, and it is graded at that line.
ONE ALERT A DAY
The whole day's card arrives in one message after the morning run.
FOUR SEASONS
Season-by-season history at the rule, with the closing line checked afterward.
SPLITS
Record by size of the edge and by underdog versus favorite.
Run-based team ratings with the starting pitcher priced in, compared to the moneyline, run line and total. Every pick is tied to the day's confirmed starters and graded at the real price that was available.
PITCHER LOCK
Every pick is matched to a confirmed starter and re-checked through the day.
THREE MARKETS
Moneyline, run line and totals, each with its own public record.
REAL PRICE
Baseball is priced in odds, so picks are graded at the actual juice, not a flat number.
PRE-GAME ONLY
Live in-play prices are filtered out. Every edge uses true pre-game pricing.
Pace and efficiency ratings priced against the total, one pick per game at most. Totals are where pace matters most and where the market is slowest to adjust during the season.
TRIGGER
A pick publishes when the model's total clears the market by a set threshold.
ONE PER GAME
Never more than one pick on a game.
GRADING
Scored at the total posted when the pick triggered, flat one unit, -110.
HISTORY
Season by season on the performance page.
Tournament probabilities for every player, compared to every book's price across outrights, placings, matchups and three-balls. Outright markets carry heavy juice, so the threshold is set per market.
CADENCE
The card builds Tuesday and Wednesday. Lines are watched Thursday through Sunday. Everything settles Monday.
MATCHUPS
Head-to-head over a tournament or a single round, among the most bettable golf markets.
3-BALLS
The best-value player in a round's three-player grouping. Frequent and quick to settle.
BEST PRICE
Graded at the best price that was available when the pick triggered.
THE LAB
A new model does not get to publish picks because it looks good in testing. It runs in shadow for a season under a written rule, with every play logged and graded exactly like a published pick. If the live record backs up the history, it is promoted. If it does not, it stays in the Lab. Either way, the record is public.
BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
Sizing matters as much as the picks. Bet too big on one game and one bad run wipes out weeks of work.
Bet the same fixed unit on every pick, regardless of tier or edge size. Simple, disciplined, resilient to drawdowns. If you bet $50 a game, you bet $50 every time.
PROS
Easy to execute, emotionally stable, clear records
CONS
Leaves sizing edge on the table for the strongest picks
Allocate more to higher-conviction picks where a sport publishes tiers. The tier record is public, so you can check whether bigger edges have actually won more before you size up on them.
The Kelly Criterion sizes a bet from the edge and your current bankroll. It maximizes long-run growth and produces larger swings.
f* = (bp − q) / b
b = decimal odds − 1 · p = model win prob · q = 1 − p
The Bankroll Growth Simulator on the home page shows how each strategy would have performed across every graded pick, filterable by sport and unit size.
EXPLORE THE SIMULATOR →10-day free trial. From $35/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Every pick, every sport, the odds board, email, text and Telegram alerts, and the bet tracker from day one.
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