We use quantitative models + real-time line movement to identify high-probability betting edges — then track every pick publicly so you see exactly what works.
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TRACK RECORD
Fully transparent. Every pick logged. No edits. No cherry-picking.
LAST 30 DAYS
Net Units
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at $100/unit flat
ROI
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resolved bets
ALL-TIME
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THE OFFER
NFL · MLB · Golf picks delivered the moment they're identified —
with email alerts, full bet tracking, and public results. 10-day free trial, no card charged until day 11.
WHAT WE'RE NOT
Random picks to pad a win record
20+ plays/day is noise, not signal
Narrative-driven "the team is hot" analysis
Models don't care about momentum stories
"Locks", "5-star plays", or tout hype
If every pick is a lock, none of them are
JUST DISCIPLINED, DATA-BACKED EDGES.
METHODOLOGY
Historical game results, team ratings, pitcher/player quality metrics, and situational factors go in. A win probability and projected line come out.
Every hour, our engine pulls live odds from 8+ sportsbooks and converts American odds to implied probabilities, netting out the vig.
When our model's win probability exceeds the market's implied probability by a meaningful threshold, that's an edge. We assign it a confidence tier (1–4).
After a pick triggers, we monitor every line move hourly. If the line shifts toward our pick, it's confirmation. Away from it — we flag the change.
EDGE CALCULATION
A positive edge means our model believes the market has underpriced the bet. We only surface picks where that difference clears a minimum threshold — filtering out noise and borderline spots.
COVERAGE
Every week, our model evaluates every game on the NFL slate and generates a win probability for each side. When that probability disagrees with what the market is pricing — by enough to matter — a pick triggers. We do the work. You get the edge.
EDGE DETECTION
When our model disagrees with the market spread or moneyline by a significant margin, a pick triggers. Minimum edge threshold filters noise.
CONFIDENCE TIERS
Every pick is rated Tier 1–4. Tier 1 (ELITE) represents the model's strongest conviction. Tier 4 (LEAN) is marginal but positive.
LINE MOVEMENT
Opening to current line tracked at every book. ↑ TOWARD means the market is moving with us. ↓ AWAY means sharp money may disagree.
PERFORMANCE HISTORY
Season-by-season breakdown. Filter by confidence tier, line movement direction, bet type, and week.
Baseball is a long season — and that's an advantage. Our model evaluates every game across three markets, identifies where the books are off, and surfaces the picks worth acting on. Every edge is tied to the day's confirmed starters, so you're never betting on outdated information.
PITCHER LOCK
Every MLB pick is matched to a confirmed starting pitcher. Starters are re-checked hourly and displayed on the picks page.
THREE MARKETS
Moneyline (who wins), Run Line (±1.5 spread), and Totals (over/under on total runs). Each uses the same underlying model.
SEASON DRILL-DOWN
Performance page lets you break down results by season, bet type (ML/RL/O/U), or confidence tier.
PRE-GAME ONLY
We filter out live in-play odds. Every edge detection uses true market pricing before first pitch — not inflated live prices.
Golf uses a different approach: instead of a proprietary model, we compare predictions from Data Golf — widely considered the best quantitative golf model available — directly against sportsbook prices. This gives us world-class probability estimates across a wide range of markets without reinventing the wheel.
TOURNAMENT CADENCE
Scans Tue/Wed for pre-tournament outrights. Monitors Thu–Sun for round matchups and 3-balls. All results auto-resolve Monday.
MATCHUP MARKETS
Head-to-head player matchups over a full tournament or a single round — among the most bettable golf markets due to book inefficiency.
3-BALL BETTING
Picks the best-value player in a specific round's 3-ball tee-time grouping. Frequent, short-resolution, actionable.
NO RECENCY BIAS
Data Golf's model is built on strokes-gained data and multi-year track records — immune to hot-streak narrative that inflates public prices.
BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
The right sizing strategy is just as important as finding good picks. Bet too big on one game and one bad run can wipe out weeks of work.
Bet the same fixed unit on every pick, regardless of confidence tier or edge size. Simple, disciplined, and resilient to drawdowns. If you bet $50/game, you bet $50 every time.
PROS
Easy to execute, emotionally stable, clear records
CONS
Leaves sizing edge on the table for high-conviction picks
Allocate more to higher-conviction picks. The model's confidence tier drives your bet size — amplifying the value of the picks the model believes in most.
The Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal bet size based on edge percentage and current bankroll. Maximizes long-run growth but produces larger swings.
f* = (bp − q) / b
b = decimal odds − 1 · p = model win prob · q = 1 − p
The Bankroll Growth Simulator on the home page shows how each strategy would have performed across every graded pick since 2021 — filterable by sport and base unit size.
EXPLORE THE SIMULATOR →10-day free trial. From $35/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Access every pick, every sport, the full odds board, email alerts, and the bet tracker from day one.
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Sports betting involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always bet responsibly.