Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings · at Minnesota Vikings · Week 9 · market: Minnesota Vikings +3.5, total 46
Executive summary
Two 6-1 teams arrive with almost opposite profiles. Minnesota wins with defense, allowing 13.3 points per game and ranking first in EPA allowed, success rate allowed, pass EPA allowed, sack rate and red-zone points allowed. Buffalo wins with offense, scoring 33.3 per game and ranking first in both rushing EPA and explosive play rate.
The decisive question is whether Minnesota's offense can hold up its end. The Vikings rank 29th in offensive EPA and 30th in success rate, and Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring injury. Carson Wentz is the expected starter, and he is working behind a line that allows a 9.2% sack rate, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw not practicing.
Minnesota's realistic path is the one that has worked in its four most recent games: low scoring, protect the ball, and take it away. Buffalo ranks 28th in offensive turnover rate, and the Vikings rank fourth in takeaway rate. Without a turnover edge, it is hard to see how this offense keeps pace.
01 / Team baseline
| Season to date | Minnesota Vikings | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 6-1 |
| Points scored / game | 20.0 | 33.3 |
| Points allowed / game | 13.3 | 25.9 |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 6.4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| Offensive efficiency (EPA / play) | -0.10 | +0.18 |
| Offensive efficiency rank | 29th | 2nd |
| Offensive success rate | 37.1% | 48.6% |
| Defensive efficiency allowed (EPA / play) | -0.18 | +0.04 |
| Defensive efficiency rank | 1st | 22nd |
| Defensive success rate allowed | 37.0% | 45.3% |
| Turnover rate (giveaways) | 1.2% | 2.5% |
Season-to-date figures. Efficiency rows are per play from the play-by-play; ranks are among the 32 teams.
02 / The decisive matchup
Buffalo's offense against Minnesota's pass defense is the strength-on-strength matchup. The Bills rank fourth in pass EPA with a 3.7 CPOE. The Vikings allow -0.282 EPA per dropback, best in the league, with an -8.2 CPOE allowed and a 10.6% sack rate, also first.
The pressure piece matters. Buffalo's offense has a 5.5% sack rate allowed, 13th in the league, and Dion Dawkins is questionable with a rib injury after not practicing. If Minnesota's rush wins the edges, Buffalo's passing efficiency comes down to earth.
The softer spot in the Vikings defense is the run, where they rank 10th in rush EPA allowed. That is still good, but it is the area where Buffalo's top-ranked ground game is most likely to find steady gains.
03 / Offensive comparison
Buffalo's offense has few holes: second in EPA per play at 0.176, fourth in success rate at 48.6%, third in early-down EPA and third in late-down success at 53.3%. The Bills average 6.4 yards per play and turn red-zone trips into 5.94 points, second in the league. The one flaw is ball security, with a 2.5% turnover rate that ranks 28th.
Minnesota's offense is the opposite. It averages 4.9 yards per play with a 37.1% success rate and 4.45 points per red-zone trip, which ranks 28th. Two things keep it afloat: a 1.2% turnover rate, fifth in the league, and an 8.5% explosive play rate that ranks ninth.
The Vikings lean run, with a -3.1 pass rate over expected, but that run game ranks 27th in rush EPA. Aaron Jones has 458 yards on 4.16 yards per carry. Jordan Mason has 147 yards on 3.87 per carry in three games. Demond Claiborne is out.
04 / The trenches
| Line of scrimmage | Minnesota Vikings offense | Buffalo Bills defense |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing efficiency (EPA / rush) | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| Rank | 27th | 18th |
| Early-down efficiency | -0.09 | +0.05 |
| Sack rate (taken / generated) | 9.2% | 5.5% |
| Explosive play rate (made / allowed) | 8.5% | 8.4% |
| Line of scrimmage | Buffalo Bills offense | Minnesota Vikings defense |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing efficiency (EPA / rush) | +0.11 | -0.09 |
| Rank | 1st | 10th |
| Early-down efficiency | +0.13 | -0.13 |
| Sack rate (taken / generated) | 5.5% | 10.6% |
| Explosive play rate (made / allowed) | 13.0% | 7.2% |
Minnesota's offensive line is the biggest structural problem in this game. A 9.2% sack rate allowed ranks 28th. Darrisaw did not practice with a shoulder injury and has no game status yet, so the left side could be compromised.
Buffalo's pass rush has not been a strength, with a 5.5% sack rate that ranks 20th. Ed Oliver did not practice with a knee injury and Greg Gaines is questionable with a calf, which could thin the interior further. That gives Minnesota's protection some cover it would not get against a stronger front.
On the other side, Buffalo's line has to handle the league's top sack unit, possibly without Dawkins and with guard Alec Anderson questionable. The Bills' run game, at 0.11 EPA per carry, is the pressure valve if dropbacks get uncomfortable.
Key threshold: Minnesota allows 3.74 points per red-zone trip, best in the league, against Buffalo's 5.94; whether the Bills finish drives with touchdowns or settle for field goals inside the 20 likely decides a game priced at 3.5.
05 / The passing game
| Passing game | Minnesota Vikings | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Passing efficiency (EPA / dropback) | -0.07 | +0.22 |
| Passing efficiency rank | 24th | 4th |
| Completion % over expected | -1.0 | 3.7 |
| Pass rate over expected | -3.1% | -2.0% |
| Late-down success (3rd/4th) | 42.6% | 53.3% |
| Pass defense efficiency allowed | -0.28 | +0.07 |
| Pass defense rank | 1st | 20th |
| Late-down success allowed | 33.8% | 46.4% |
Josh Allen averages 256.1 passing yards per game with 11 touchdown passes, plus 278 rushing yards and nine rushing scores. His targets are spread out: Khalil Shakir has a 19.3% target share, Dalton Kincaid 18.3% and Keon Coleman 14.2%. DJ Moore has averaged 65.0 yards in four games, but he and Coleman are listed with shoulder injuries, and Josh Palmer is out.
On Minnesota's side, Wentz has thrown 46 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns across two appearances, 138.0 yards per game. Justin Jefferson leads the team with a 22.4% target share and 55.8 yards per game, and T.J. Hockenson adds 42.1 yards per game on 31 catches. Jauan Jennings is out with a calf injury.
Buffalo's pass defense ranks 20th, allowing 0.074 EPA per dropback with a -2.5 CPOE allowed. That is beatable on paper. The catch is that Minnesota's protection and quarterback situation may not let the offense exploit it.
06 / Defensive comparison
| Defense | Minnesota Vikings | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 13.3 | 25.9 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.0% | 45.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.2% | 8.4% |
| Sack rate generated | 10.6% | 5.5% |
| Takeaway rate | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Red-zone points allowed per trip | 3.74 | 5.5 |
| Red-zone defense rank | 1st | 23rd |
Minnesota's defense is the best unit in this game and arguably the league. It allows -0.18 EPA per play and a 37.0% success rate, both first, and a 33.8% late-down success rate, second. It also keeps explosives to 7.2% of snaps and holds red-zone trips to 3.74 points.
Buffalo's defense ranks 22nd in EPA allowed and 25th in success rate allowed, giving up 5.4 yards per play and 25.9 points per game. Its red-zone defense ranks 23rd at 5.5 points per trip, so even a modest Minnesota offense can score once it gets close.
The run defenses are closer than the overall numbers suggest. Minnesota ranks 10th in rush EPA allowed and Buffalo 18th, but neither is the weak link. The gap between these defenses is mostly in pass coverage and pass rush.
07 / Where the models sit
| Model | Leans | Gap vs the market |
|---|---|---|
| Edge Power | Buffalo Bills | clear |
Edge Power, our live NFL model, leans Buffalo, and the gap to the market is clear.
The read follows the efficiency profile. Buffalo's offense grades near the top of the league on every down, while Minnesota's record leans heavily on a defense and a turnover margin that have carried a bottom-tier offense.
There is no live pick on this game. Treat the lean as context for the matchup rather than a position.
08 / Four game scripts
Defense dictates — Minnesota's front wins on early downs, holds Buffalo to field goals in the red zone and forces a turnover or two from an offense that ranks 28th in turnover rate. The Vikings repeat their recent formula of a low-teens or high-teens score and a one-score finish.
Buffalo leans on the run — The Bills avoid the pass rush by feeding James Cook against the Vikings' relative soft spot. They stay ahead of the chains, Allen adds red-zone rushing, and Minnesota's offense, which ranks 30th in success rate, cannot keep up once it falls behind by two scores.
Protection breaks down — With Darrisaw limited or out, Wentz faces steady pressure behind a line that allows a 9.2% sack rate. Drives stall, Buffalo gets short fields, and the game opens up early in a way Minnesota is not built to handle.
Explosive swing — Minnesota's ninth-ranked explosive rate produces a couple of chunk plays to Jefferson or Hockenson against a 20th-ranked pass defense. The Vikings steal points without long drives and keep it inside the number into the fourth quarter.
09 / Injuries and props to look at
Injuries: Minnesota is without QB Kyler Murray (Out, hamstring), WR Jauan Jennings (Out, calf) and RB Demond Claiborne (Out, knee), and LT Christian Darrisaw (shoulder, no game status yet) did not practice. Buffalo has T Dion Dawkins (Questionable, rib) after a missed practice, DE Ed Oliver (knee, no game status yet) also sat out, and WRs DJ Moore and Keon Coleman (shoulder, no game status yet) were limited, with WR Josh Palmer (Out, hamstring).
- James Cook — rushing yards 83.5, over. Cook averages 101.0 rushing yards per game at 5.12 per carry for the league's top-ranked rushing offense, and run defense is the one area where Minnesota is good rather than elite.
- Josh Allen — passing yards 236.5, under. Allen averages 256.1 per game, but Minnesota ranks first in pass EPA allowed and sack rate, and Buffalo has the run game to lean on if dropbacks get dangerous.
- Carson Wentz — passing yards 210.5, under. Wentz has averaged 138.0 passing yards per game in his two appearances, behind a line that allows a 9.2% sack rate and may be without Darrisaw.
- Justin Jefferson — receiving yards 77, under. Jefferson averages 55.8 yards per game with Murray at quarterback, and this line asks for well above that with a backup in a low-volume, run-leaning offense.
Angles to look at, not picks: lines are the latest board capture and move.
10 / Market assessment
| Market | Assessment | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Bills -3.5 | Edge Power leans Buffalo, with a clear gap to the market. Buffalo's efficiency edge is wide on offense, but Minnesota's defense and turnover profile keep games tight. There is no live pick on this game. | Watch |
| Total 46 | Two forces pull in opposite directions: an elite Buffalo offense and a porous Buffalo defense against Minnesota's top-ranked defense and an offense that ranks 28th in red-zone scoring. The Vikings' recent games have been low-scoring; Buffalo's have not. | Pass |
| Player props | The matchup points toward Buffalo's run game and away from both passing attacks, especially with Wentz expected to start. | Watch |
11 / The handicap
This game sets a clean efficiency gap against a résumé. Buffalo's offense grades second in EPA and first in explosive rate, while Minnesota's ranks 29th and 30th in the core efficiency measures. The Vikings' 6-1 record rests on the league's best defense and a 1.2% turnover rate.
Murray's absence and Darrisaw's practice status make Minnesota's offensive outlook worse than its season numbers. The Vikings' best counter is Buffalo's 28th-ranked turnover rate against their fourth-ranked takeaway rate, plus a red-zone defense that turns drives into field goals.
Bottom line: Edge Power's lean and the matchup data point the same way. The number at 3.5 is close enough that a single takeaway or red-zone stand can flip it, so we are watching injury news on both offensive lines before kickoff.
Prepared 2026-11-09. Figures reflect the information available at preparation and may change. Members get a separate pick report when one of our models fires on a game.