Edge runs its own models, one per sport, and a Lab where new ones earn their way onto the card. Every pick any of them makes is logged the moment it triggers and graded at the line that was posted at that moment. The triggers below are not marketing. They are the rules the models run under, and the records are why those rules are set where they are.
One overall strength rating per team, updated every week of the season.
Edge Power turns each team into a single number and prices every game from the gap between the two. A pick publishes when that number disagrees with the market spread by enough to matter. Picks are logged the moment they trigger and graded at the line that was posted at that moment, never at a better number found later.
EVERY GRADED PICK →Possession-based efficiency: points per possession on both ends, shooting, turnovers, rebounding and pace, adjusted for schedule.
Every morning at 10 AM Eastern, Edge Tempo prices that day's games and compares each one to the line on the board at that moment. A pick publishes when the gap is 8 or more points, and it is graded at that 10 AM line.
Every pick is graded at the line that was posted that morning, and the closing line is checked afterward. The edge holds at the close, which is the test that matters. Bigger gaps win more, and plays on the underdog win more than plays on the favorite, so those splits are shown too.
One overall strength rating per team, built from play efficiency on both sides of the ball and adjusted for opponents.
A pick publishes when Edge Power's number sits 8 or more points from the market spread, and the line is tracked from that moment to kickoff so you can see whether the market came toward the pick.
The NFL market is the sharpest there is. A high bar means fewer picks, but it keeps the model out of games where a 3 or 4 point disagreement is just noise. The bands below show how the bigger gaps have done.
Run-based team ratings with the starting pitcher priced in, compared to the moneyline, run line and total.
Picks publish daily and are graded at the real price that was available, not a flat number.
Baseball is priced in odds rather than points, so every pick is graded at the actual juice. The record is shown by market so a strong moneyline season cannot hide a weak totals one.
Pace and efficiency ratings priced against the total, one pick per game at most.
Picks publish on game day and are graded at the total posted when they triggered.
Totals are where pace matters most and where the market is slowest to adjust during the season.
Tournament probabilities for every player, compared to every book's price across outrights, placings, matchups and three-balls.
The card is built Tuesday and Wednesday, lines are watched through the weekend, and everything is settled Monday at the best price that was available when the pick triggered.
Outright markets carry heavy juice, so a small edge there is worth more than the same edge in a matchup. The thresholds are set per market for that reason.
Each Lab model runs under a written rule, in shadow, with every play logged and graded exactly like a published pick. A model is promoted when its live record backs up its history, and the rule is never changed quietly.
Built from every snap: how efficiently a team actually plays, on offense and defense, adjusted for who it played.
Where Edge Power rates the team, Edge Snap rates the plays. It runs beside Edge Power all season in shadow, and its plays are logged and graded exactly like published picks, so when it earns a place on the card the record will already exist.
Four points was the smallest gap that held up season after season at lines a bettor could actually get.
A full scouting report: dozens of team traits weighed against the number the market posted.
Edge Scout fires on games where the Sunday line looks wrong by a specific, mid-sized amount. It runs in shadow beside the other two college football models, with every play logged and graded.
Very large disagreements were unstable: they won at one line time and lost at another. The 3 to 6.9 window was the band that worked at both, so the rule is capped there on purpose.
Predicts where the market line will move by kickoff, rather than who will cover.
Edge Drift fires when it expects the number to move at least three quarters of a point toward one side. The bet is simply being on that side before the move. It runs in shadow every week of the season.
Beating the closing line is the most reliable sign of a real edge. CLV below is the average number of points the close moved toward the side Edge Drift took.