13 key stats to know before betting the Week 7 NFL slate

Week 7 · 14 games · season-to-date team numbers, ranks among the 32 · props from the latest board capture

Week 7 has a handful of real mismatches, including a few top-five units drawing bottom-five opponents. It also has strength-on-strength spots where the number already does the work. Each note leads with season-to-date team numbers and national ranks among the 32, then ends with what it means for a side, a total or the game script. Injuries and props worth a look follow each note. In games where Edge Power has a live pick, we note the size of the gap but leave the side to the members pick report.

1. Steelers at Saints. Pittsburgh's run game ranks 5th in rush EPA (0.046) and draws a New Orleans defense that is 31st against the run and dead last in success rate allowed at 50.0%. The Saints counter with the league's second-best red-zone offense at 6.24 points per trip, while the Steelers convert only 36.5% on late downs (26th). Expect Pittsburgh to lean on the ground in the dome. Even so, Edge Power leans the Saints plus the 3.5, with a clear gap.

Injuries: Steelers RB Rico Dowdle is questionable (knee), CB Brandin Echols is out (hamstring) and S DeShon Elliott is questionable (knee). Saints G Cesar Ruiz (knee) and DT Nathan Shepherd (illness) are questionable.

Props to look at:

Jaylen Warren — rushing yards 63.5, over. He averages 76.7 rushing yards at 5.48 per carry, and this is the 31st-ranked run defense, with Dowdle questionable to cut into his work.

2. 49ers at Falcons. San Francisco ranks 1st in EPA per play, pass EPA (0.37), success rate (53.0%), sack rate allowed (2.4%) and red-zone scoring (6.39 points per trip). Atlanta's one elite unit is its run defense, 1st in rush EPA allowed at -0.17, which pushes the 49ers toward the air. Atlanta's offense runs a pass rate well below expected (-7.7), so expect a pass-first 49ers script against a Falcons team that wants to grind. Edge Power leans San Francisco only slightly at -3.

Injuries: 49ers WR Mike Evans (ribs), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) and DE Nick Bosa (knee) are out. Falcons RB Brian Robinson is out (hamstring), and tackles Michael Jerrell (biceps) and Cameron Williams (ankle) are out.

Props to look at:

Christian McCaffrey — rushing yards 60.5, under. He averages 58.3 rushing yards at 4.55 per carry, and Atlanta's run defense is 1st in rush EPA allowed.
George Kittle — receiving yards 69, over. With Evans out, his 24.0% target share needs a home, and Kittle's 21.6% share and 56.2 yards per game should rise against a pass defense ranked 19th.

3. Bengals at Ravens. Lamar Jackson is out, and Baltimore's 5th-ranked pass EPA (0.246) was built largely with him under center. Cincinnati's pass rush leads the league in sack rate (9.3%) and ranks 2nd in takeaway rate (2.9%), while the Ravens allow sacks at 6.5% (21st). The Bengals arrive off 14 days of rest against 7 for Baltimore. Edge Power leans Cincinnati slightly at +3 in this division game.

Injuries: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is out (ankle), as are S Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) and LB Tavius Robinson (pectoral). CB T.J. Tampa is doubtful (knee). The Bengals list no injuries.

Props to look at:

Derrick Henry — rushing yards 85.5, over. He averages 89.0 rushing yards against a Bengals run defense ranked 20th, and a backup quarterback should tilt Baltimore toward the ground.
Joe Burrow — passing yards 260.5, over. He averages 272.2 passing yards, and Cincinnati passes 5.4 points over expected, which supports volume even against a pass defense ranked 12th.

4. Buccaneers at Panthers. Carolina ranks 2nd in early-down EPA (0.186) and 4th in turnover rate (0.9%). Tampa Bay's passing game is 30th in pass EPA (-0.208), 27th in sack rate allowed (8.8%) and 30th in turnover rate, and now loses Emeka Egbuka and his 26.2% target share. The Bucs' path is the run: they rank 6th in rush EPA against a Carolina defense that is 25th against it. Edge Power leans Carolina at -3, a clear gap.

Injuries: Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka (concussion), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib) and T Luke Goedeke (calf) are out. QB Baker Mayfield is questionable (thumb) after a full practice. Panthers LB Jaelan Phillips is out (hamstring).

Props to look at:

Bucky Irving — rushing yards 65.5, over. He averages 75.3 rushing yards at 4.71 per carry against a 25th-ranked run defense, and Egbuka's absence narrows Tampa Bay's passing options.

5. Browns at Titans. Neither offense moves the ball well. Tennessee is 31st in EPA per play and early-down EPA, while Cleveland is 31st in late-down success (35.2%) and 32nd in sack rate allowed (10.8%). The Browns' pass rush ranks 5th in sack rate and their red-zone defense 6th (4.38 points allowed per trip), which keeps the 38 honest. Edge Power leans the Titans at +1.5, and the gap is wide.

Injuries: Titans WR Calvin Ridley is questionable (hip) after not practicing. RB Tyjae Spears is questionable (rest). Browns G Teven Jenkins (back) and QB Dillon Gabriel (back) are out, DTs Kalia Davis and Mike Hall Jr. are out, and CB Denzel Ward is questionable (hand).

Props to look at:

Denzel Boston — receiving yards 50.5, over. He averages 57.5 yards on a 20.2% share against a Titans pass defense that ranks 27th in EPA allowed and allows a +6.1 CPOE.
Tony Pollard — rushing yards 65.5, under. He averages 58.2 rushing yards at 4.01 per carry, and the Titans offense ranks just 20th in rush EPA.

6. Giants at Texans. Houston's run game is 25th in rush EPA, but it draws a Giants defense ranked 30th against the run, and David Montgomery is out. New York's pass rush is 31st in sack rate (3.6%), which means a clean pocket for an offense 9th in pass EPA and 6th in explosive rate. The Giants stay on the field on late downs (49.8%, 7th), which matters against a 10-point spread. Edge Power shows a wide gap against this number; the side lives in the members pick report.

Injuries: Texans RB David Montgomery (groin), S Reed Blankenship (concussion), S Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and T Blake Fisher (thumb) are out. Giants LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Greg Newsome II and S Jevon Holland are out, and TE Theo Johnson is doubtful (neck).

Props to look at:

Woody Marks — rushing yards 61, over. Montgomery's absence consolidates the carries, and Marks gets a run defense ranked 30th after averaging 34.2 yards while splitting work.
Nico Collins — receiving yards 68.5, over. He averages 80.8 yards on 7.5 targets per game and faces a pass rush that ranks 31st in sack rate.
Malik Nabers — receiving yards 69, over. His 29.7% target share produces 82.3 yards per game, and the Texans pass defense ranks 21st in EPA allowed.

7. Colts at Vikings. Minnesota's defense ranks 1st in EPA per play, pass EPA allowed (-0.306), success rate allowed (33.5%), takeaway rate and red-zone defense (3.5 points per trip). Its offense is the opposite: 32nd in both success rate (35.4%) and red-zone scoring (3.67). Indianapolis runs well (4th in rush EPA) but defends the run worst in the league, and the Vikings come in off 14 days of rest in a dome. Edge Power shows a wide gap here; the side is in the members pick report.

Injuries: Colts TE Tyler Warren (groin), CB Sauce Gardner (calf) and LB CJ Allen (ankle) are out. Vikings RB Jordan Mason is questionable (thumb) after a full practice.

Props to look at:

Daniel Jones — passing yards 195.5, under. He averages 215.0 passing yards, but this is the league's top pass defense, allowing a -9.8 CPOE, and Warren's 17.6% share is off the field.
Jonathan Taylor — rushing yards 70.5, under. He averages 82.0 rushing yards at 4.03 per carry, and Minnesota ranks 5th in rush EPA allowed.

8. Dolphins at Jets. Miami's defense is 32nd in pass EPA allowed (0.373), sack rate (1.9%) and late-down success allowed (57.8%), and it allows a +12.8 CPOE. That is relief for a Jets offense that is 30th in sack rate allowed (9.4%) and 31st in red-zone scoring (3.83 points per trip). Miami's own offense passes well below expected (-11.1) and ranks 31st in pass EPA. Edge Power leans Miami slightly at +5 off 14 days of rest, but the clearest matchup edge belongs to the Jets' passing game.

Injuries: Jets RB Breece Hall is questionable (quadricep), T Max Mitchell is out (concussion) and G Dylan Parham is questionable (knee). Dolphins CB Reese Taylor is out (quadricep), and DE Rob Beal Jr. is doubtful (hamstring).

Props to look at:

Garrett Wilson — receiving yards 63, over. He averages 69.7 yards on a 28.8% target share against the league's 32nd-ranked pass defense.
Geno Smith — passing yards 220.5, over. He averages 222.7 passing yards and gets a defense that is last in sack rate and allows a +12.8 CPOE.
Ollie Gordon II — rushing yards 50.5, under. His 59.0 yards per game at 5.02 per carry runs into a Jets defense ranked 6th in rush EPA allowed.

9. Broncos at Cardinals. Denver's offense is 28th in success rate (37.9%) and 25th in pass EPA, but Arizona's pass defense is 30th in EPA allowed and 27th on late downs (51.4%). Arizona's offense rarely creates big plays, ranking 32nd in explosive rate (4.0%), and it faces a Broncos pass defense ranked 4th. The Cardinals' opening is on the ground, where Denver ranks 29th in rush EPA allowed. Edge Power shows a wide gap against the number; the side is in the members pick report.

Injuries: Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle), DT Walter Nolen (ankle) and G Jon Gaines II (knee) are out. S Budda Baker and QB Carson Beck are questionable. Broncos S Talanoa Hufanga and LB Jonah Elliss are out, and CB Pat Surtain II is questionable (ankle).

Props to look at:

Tyler Allgeier — rushing yards 42.5, over. Love's 49.0 yards per game come off the board, and his carries flow toward a back facing a run defense ranked 29th.

10. Packers at Lions. Detroit's offense is 2nd in pass EPA (0.309), 1st in turnover rate (0.3%) and 3rd in red-zone scoring (6.13). Its defense is 31st in EPA allowed, late-down success allowed (56.6%) and explosive rate allowed (10.8%). Green Bay ranks 32nd in rush EPA (-0.279), so its points have to come through the air against a pass defense ranked 29th, and both profiles point toward the 53 in a dome. Edge Power leans Detroit at -3 with a wide gap, and the Lions come off 14 days of rest.

Injuries: Packers LB Zaire Franklin is out (shin). G Aaron Banks and CB Benjamin St-Juste are questionable. Lions S Brian Branch and C Cade Mays are questionable after full practices.

Props to look at:

Jahmyr Gibbs — rushing yards 93.5, over. He averages 100.8 rushing yards at 4.8 per carry against a Packers run defense ranked 21st.
Christian Watson — receiving yards 76.5, over. He averages 89.7 yards per game against a defense that is 29th in pass EPA allowed and 31st in explosive plays allowed.

11. Rams at Raiders. Las Vegas cannot run (31st in rush EPA, -0.247) but passes well: 8th in pass EPA and 4th in sack rate allowed (3.6%), against a Rams pass rush that is 28th in sack rate. The Rams convert 50.8% on late downs (5th) against a Raiders defense that is 26th in pass EPA allowed and 27th in red-zone points allowed. Expect both teams to throw indoors. Edge Power shows a wide gap here; the side lives in the members pick report.

Injuries: Rams WR Puka Nacua is questionable (calf) after not practicing, CB Trent McDuffie is questionable (groin) and LB Nate Landman is out (concussion). Raiders WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. is out (hamstring), and RB Mike Washington Jr. is questionable (foot).

Props to look at:

Matthew Stafford — passing yards 270.5, over. He averages 299.0 passing yards against a pass defense ranked 26th in EPA allowed.
Brock Bowers — receiving yards 71, over. He averages 95.5 yards on 10.8 targets per game, behind a line that ranks 4th in sack rate allowed against a 28th-ranked pass rush.

12. Chiefs at Seahawks. The ground game is strength against strength: Kansas City is 2nd in rush EPA (0.115) and explosive rate (11.2%), and Seattle's defense is 3rd in both rush EPA allowed and explosive rate allowed. Seattle's offense is the weak link, 30th in rush EPA and 29th in turnover rate (3.1%), against a Chiefs defense that is 4th in takeaway rate and 3rd in pass EPA allowed. Edge Power leans Kansas City at +2.5 with a clear gap, and the 42.5 reflects two top-three defenses.

Injuries: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) and T Jaylon Moore (concussion) are out, and CB L'Jarius Sneed is questionable (knee). Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet is out (knee), LBs Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt are out, and LBs DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu are questionable.

Props to look at:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba — receiving yards 92.5, under. His 34.9% share produces 119.5 yards per game, but the Chiefs rank 3rd in pass EPA allowed and allow a -4.8 CPOE.
Sam Darnold — passing yards 224.5, under. He averages 206.6 passing yards and faces a top-three pass defense.
Kenneth Walker III — anytime TD yes -135, yes. He has 6 rushing touchdowns in 5 games, and Seattle's red-zone defense ranks 31st at 6.19 points allowed per trip.

13. Cowboys at Eagles. Dallas has the league's worst defense by EPA (32nd) and is 31st in pass EPA allowed (0.364), but Philadelphia's offense is in no shape to exploit it. The Eagles are 30th in EPA and 32nd in late-down success (35.1%), and they are without DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks. The Cowboys' offense ranks 8th in EPA and 2nd in sack rate allowed (2.6%) against an Eagles pass rush that is 30th in sack rate. Edge Power leans the Eagles only slightly at +4.5 in this Monday division game.

Injuries: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), LB Nolan Smith (concussion) and CB Michael Carter II (abdomen) are out. RB Saquon Barkley is questionable after a full practice. Cowboys T Drew Shelton, LB Dee Winters and WR KaVontae Turpin are out.

Props to look at:

CeeDee Lamb — receiving yards 83.5, over. He averages 96.2 yards on a 29.2% target share against a pass defense ranked 24th.
Dak Prescott — passing yards 263, over. He averages 273.2 passing yards and should see a clean pocket against a pass rush that ranks 30th in sack rate.
Dallas Goedert — receiving yards 40.5, over. With Smith (21.9% share) and Wicks (17.1%) out, Goedert's 45.0 yards per game should come with more targets.

These are season-to-date team numbers and ranks, and lines will move before kickoff. Edge Power's live picks, with their sides, are logged and graded in the members pick report.

Prepared 2026-10-25. Lines and injury statuses move after this is written; props are angles to look at, not picks. The picks themselves are in your dashboard and alerts.