Week 8 · 14 games · season-to-date team numbers, ranks among the 32 · props from the latest board capture
Week 8 is defined by mismatches at the extremes. Minnesota's defense ranks 1st across the board and visits a top-4 Detroit offense, Miami's pass defense ranks last, and the winless Chargers rank 32nd in nearly every offensive category. The notes run in kickoff order. Every number is a season-to-date team figure with its rank among the 32. Where Edge Power leans a side, we say how strongly, and the props are angles to look at, not picks.
1. Panthers at Packers. Green Bay ranks 32nd in rush EPA (-0.274) and 30th in red-zone scoring (4.11 points per trip), so this offense lives or dies through the air. Carolina's early-down offense ranks 5th and its rushing attack ranks 8th, although the Packers' run defense (8th) and explosive-play prevention (3rd) are real obstacles. With Green Bay at -3.5 and a one-dimensional home offense, Edge Power leans Carolina by a clear gap.
Injuries: Green Bay is without C Sean Rhyan (ankle), G Travis Glover (knee) and LB Zaire Franklin (shin), and lists WR Matthew Golden (shoulder) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle) as questionable. Carolina is without G Damien Lewis (knee), G Torricelli Simpkins III (ankle), LB Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and CB Akayleb Evans (triceps).
Props to look at:
- Jordan Love — passing yards 262.5, over. Love averages 279.7 passing yards a game for an offense that runs at a bottom-ranked clip and passes 3.3% over expectation, and he faces an 18th-ranked Carolina pass defense.
- Christian Watson — receiving yards 71, over. Watson averages 85.0 yards a game, and Matthew Golden's questionable tag could push more volume his way.
2. Raiders at Jets. Las Vegas ranks 31st in rush EPA (-0.268) and runs into a Jets run defense that ranks 6th, but its pass offense ranks 8th against a New York pass defense that ranks 22nd. The Jets allow sacks at an 8.9% rate (28th), and the Raiders' defense ranks 3rd in takeaway rate. Expect Las Vegas to win through the air or not at all. Edge Power leans the Jets only slightly.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Ashton Jeanty — rushing yards 49.5, under. Jeanty is averaging 46.9 rushing yards a game on 3.09 yards per carry behind a 31st-ranked run game, and this week he faces a top-6 run defense.
- Kirk Cousins — passing yards 239.5, over. Cousins averages 268.1 passing yards a game, and the Jets' pass defense is far softer than their run defense.
3. Cardinals at Cowboys. Dallas ranks 5th in offensive EPA, 5th in late-down success (52.8%), 3rd in red-zone scoring (5.84 points per trip) and 1st in sack rate allowed (2.2%). Arizona's pass defense ranks 30th. The catch is that the Cowboys' defense ranks 31st against the pass and 31st in explosive plays allowed (10.0%). Arizona's offense ranks 32nd in explosive rate (4.6%), though, so it is poorly built to cash in. Edge Power leans Dallas slightly at -6.5, with a 54.5 total that already prices in a lot of scoring.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Dak Prescott — passing yards 278.5, over. Prescott averages 264.4 passing yards a game behind the league's best sack-rate protection and draws a 30th-ranked pass defense.
- CeeDee Lamb — receiving yards 82.5, over. Lamb holds a 30.9% target share and averages 93.0 receiving yards a game.
- Trey McBride — receptions 7.5, over. McBride draws 11.1 targets a game, and Dallas allows a completion rate 5.4 points over expected.
4. Falcons at Buccaneers. Both offenses run well below their expected pass rates (Tampa Bay -5.8%, Atlanta -6.7%), and both pass offenses sit in the bottom 11, so this division game should be played on the ground. Tampa Bay's rushing attack ranks 7th but meets Atlanta's 4th-ranked run defense. Atlanta's passing game ranks 22nd with a -3.7 CPOE and now faces a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 4th. Edge Power sits with the market at Tampa Bay -2, and the run-heavy script points toward a grinding game.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Bijan Robinson — rushing yards 80.5, over. Robinson averages 100.6 rushing yards a game at 5.37 yards per carry, and Tampa Bay's run defense ranks only 12th.
- Bucky Irving — rushing yards 70.5, under. Irving averages 79.7 yards a game, but Atlanta's run defense ranks 4th in EPA allowed.
5. Ravens at Bills. Buffalo ranks 1st in offensive EPA, 1st in rush EPA, 1st in explosive rate (13.6%) and 2nd in red-zone scoring (5.93 points per trip), and it comes off 14 days of rest against Baltimore's 7. The Bills' defense ranks 29th in EPA and 30th in red-zone defense, and the Ravens' passing game (5th) can hurt it. At -3.5 with a 53.5 total, Edge Power leans Buffalo by a clear gap.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- James Cook — rushing yards 85.5, over. Cook averages 104.5 rushing yards a game at 5.36 yards per carry for the league's top-ranked run offense.
- Zay Flowers — receiving yards 82.5, over. Flowers averages 101.3 receiving yards a game, and Buffalo's pass defense ranks 28th.
6. Titans at Bengals. Tennessee ranks 31st in offensive EPA and 31st in early-down EPA. Cincinnati's defense ranks 2nd in sack rate (9.4%) and 2nd in red-zone defense (3.83 points per trip). The Bengals pass at a 6.4% rate over expected, with a 6th-ranked pass offense and a 7.1 CPOE, against a Titans defense allowing a 6.2 CPOE. The matchup favors Cincinnati, but 10.5 is a big number, and Edge Power leans Tennessee by a clear gap.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Joe Burrow — passing yards 271.5, over. Burrow averages 275.5 passing yards a game in a pass-first offense and faces a 26th-ranked pass defense.
- Tee Higgins — receiving yards 68, over. Higgins averages 95.2 receiving yards a game, well above this line.
- Cam Ward — passing yards 196.5, under. Ward averages 168.4 passing yards a game for a 30th-ranked pass offense, and he faces a defense that ranks 2nd in sack rate.
7. Browns at Steelers. Cleveland allows sacks at a 9.6% rate (31st) and converts late downs at 36.6% (30th), and it now faces a Pittsburgh pass rush that ranks 5th (7.3%). The Steelers' run game ranks 4th in EPA against a Browns run defense that ranks 19th. In a division game with a 39.5 total, Pittsburgh's ground game and pass rush are the edges, and Edge Power leans the Steelers slightly at -3.5.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Jaylen Warren — rushing yards 65.5, over. Warren averages 80.1 rushing yards a game at 5.5 yards per carry against a middling Cleveland run defense.
- Deshaun Watson — passing yards 208.5, under. Watson averages 211.7 passing yards a game behind protection that ranks 31st, and he faces a top-5 pass defense.
8. Vikings at Lions. Minnesota ranks 1st in defensive EPA, pass defense, success rate, sack rate (10.0%), takeaway rate and red-zone defense, and it allows a -9.9 CPOE. Detroit's offense is the best test it has seen: 2nd in pass EPA, 2nd in success rate and 3rd in turnover rate. The Vikings' offense ranks 32nd in success rate (35.7%) and 32nd in red-zone scoring, against a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in explosive plays allowed. Edge Power leans Detroit, and the gap is wide.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Jared Goff — passing yards 260.5, under. Goff averages 298.0 passing yards a game, but Minnesota's pass defense ranks 1st in EPA and 1st in sack rate.
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9. Colts at Jaguars. Jacksonville comes off 14 days of rest with an offense ranked 3rd in EPA, 3rd in pass EPA and 3rd in explosive rate. Its defense ranks 1st in rush EPA allowed (-0.167), which matters because Indianapolis ranks 5th in rush EPA but 31st in pass EPA. The Colts' defense does rank 3rd in late-down success allowed (34.9%), which can keep the score closer than the matchup suggests. At Jacksonville -9 in a division game, Edge Power leans Indianapolis by a clear gap.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Jonathan Taylor — rushing yards 60.5, under. Taylor averages 83.9 rushing yards a game, but Jacksonville's run defense ranks 1st in EPA allowed.
- Trevor Lawrence — passing yards 242, over. Lawrence averages 246.7 passing yards a game for a top-3 pass offense facing a 17th-ranked pass defense.
10. Chargers at Rams. The 0-6 Chargers rank 32nd in offensive EPA, pass EPA, sack rate allowed (9.7%) and turnover rate (3.8%). They pass 9.8% below expectation, a sign the staff is trying to hide the passing game. The Rams' defense ranks 5th in EPA and 4th in late-down success allowed, though its pass rush ranks only 27th. Even with the Chargers coming off 14 days of rest, Edge Power leans the Rams slightly at -6.5.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Justin Herbert — passing yards 206.5, under. Herbert averages 190.2 passing yards a game in a run-leaning, 32nd-ranked pass offense facing a top-6 pass defense.
- Kyren Williams — rushing yards 59, over. Williams averages 70.3 rushing yards a game at 5.12 yards per carry, and the Rams should control the script.
11. Chiefs at Broncos. Kansas City's run game ranks 2nd in EPA and meets a Denver run defense that ranks 29th. Through the air, though, Denver's pass defense ranks 3rd. The Broncos' offense ranks 29th in success rate and 29th in late-down conversion against a Chiefs defense that ranks 4th in EPA. Edge Power sits with the market, and with a 41 total in a division game, the Chiefs' ground game looks like the path of least resistance.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Kenneth Walker III — rushing yards 88.5, over. Walker averages 116.8 rushing yards a game at 5.84 yards per carry, and Denver's run defense ranks 29th.
- Bo Nix — passing yards 205.5, under. Nix averages 181.6 passing yards a game and faces a top-7 pass defense.
12. Patriots at Dolphins. Miami's defense ranks 32nd in EPA, 32nd in pass EPA allowed, 32nd in late-down success allowed (58.2%) and 32nd in sack rate (2.5%), and it allows a 12.6 CPOE. New England's pass offense ranks 9th with a 6.6 CPOE and comes off 10 days of rest. The Patriots also rank 31st in turnover rate (3.3%) and 28th in red-zone scoring, which is how a touchdown favorite fails to cover. Edge Power leans Miami, and the gap is wide.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Drake Maye — passing yards 233.5, over. Maye averages 254.9 passing yards a game and faces the league's worst pass defense and weakest pass rush.
- Hunter Henry — receiving yards 38.5, over. Henry averages 42.3 receiving yards a game against a defense that allows completions far above expectation.
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13. Bears at Seahawks. Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in EPA, 3rd against the run and 1st in explosive plays allowed (4.0%), but it ranks 31st in red-zone defense (6.19 points per trip). Chicago's offense also ranks 31st in red-zone scoring, so neither side is reliable once drives reach the 20. The Seahawks' offense ranks 30th in rush EPA and 30th in turnover rate, while the Bears' defense ranks 1st in late-down success allowed (27.3%) and 3rd in sack rate. Chicago comes in on 11 days of rest, and Edge Power leans the Bears by a clear gap with Seattle at -3.
Injuries: None of note
Props to look at:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — receiving yards 98.5, over. Smith-Njigba holds a 36.1% target share and averages 123.9 receiving yards a game, and Chicago ranks 26th in explosive plays allowed.
- Sam Darnold — passing yards 233.5, under. Darnold averages 215.0 passing yards a game and faces a Bears pass rush that ranks 3rd in sack rate.
These are season-to-date team numbers, and lines will move before kickoff. Our graded picks live in the members pick report at sportbettingedge.com.
Prepared 2026-10-29. Lines and injury statuses move after this is written; props are angles to look at, not picks. The picks themselves are in your dashboard and alerts.