Week 9 · 15 games · season-to-date team numbers, ranks among the 32 · props from the latest board capture
Week 9 opens with a Thursday game that hinges on two Baltimore quarterbacks who missed practice and closes with the league's top defense hosting the most explosive offense on Monday night. Each note leads with two to four team numbers and ranks, then says what they mean for the side, the total or the game script. Where Edge Power leans a side we say so; where a live pick exists, the side stays in the members report.
1. Jaguars at Ravens. Jacksonville's defense ranks first in rush EPA allowed, second in red-zone points allowed per trip (3.83) and second in takeaway rate. Baltimore's defense ranks 29th in red-zone points allowed (5.78), and its offense already sits 25th in sack rate (7.8%) and 22nd in late-down success. Both teams are on a short week, and the market has Baltimore at +10 with a 40.5 total. Edge Power sees a wide gap in this game; the side lives in the members report.
Injuries: Ravens QBs Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) both did not practice, and neither has an official game status yet, but Lamar is expected to go on the IR; K Tyler Loop (groin) also missed practice, while T Roger Rosengarten (ankle) and G John Simpson (back) were limited. For Jacksonville, RB Bhayshul Tuten (ankle) did not practice, and WR Jakobi Meyers (hamstring), DE Travon Walker (rib) and RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (hand) were limited; no statuses are out yet.
Props to look at:
- Derrick Henry — rushing yards 70.5, under. He averages 79.0 yards a game at just 3.97 per carry, and Jacksonville owns the top run defense by EPA while a 10-point spread threatens to take the run out of the script.
- Joe Fagnano — passing yards 167, under. If he starts, he faces a pass defense ranked sixth in EPA and third in late-down success behind a line ranked 25th in sack rate.
- Parker Washington — receiving yards 64.5, over. He carries a 24.5% target share and 61.7 yards a game in the league's second-ranked passing offense, and Meyers' limited practice could concentrate looks against a Ravens pass defense ranked 19th.
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2. Bengals at Falcons. Cincinnati ranks second in success rate and second in late-down success (54.0%), but it meets an Atlanta pass defense ranked third in EPA allowed with the sixth-best sack rate. The other side of the ball is cleaner: the Falcons rank 28th in pass EPA and 30th in turnover rate, while the Bengals' defense ranks third in sack rate and fifth in takeaway rate. Edge Power leans Cincinnati as a 3-point road favorite by a clear gap. A 52.5 total asks a lot of an Atlanta passing game that hasn't delivered.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Atlanta listed RB Brian Robinson out (hamstring), T Jawaan Taylor limited (hamstring) and G Chris Lindstrom out of practice for a personal matter; Cincinnati listed S Kyle Dugger out (quadricep).
Props to look at:
- Mike Gesicki — anytime TD yes +252, yes. He has six touchdowns on 24 targets in six games, and Cincinnati ranks seventh in red-zone points per trip (5.44).
3. Jets at Chiefs. Kansas City's pass rush ranks 32nd in sack rate (3.4%), which blunts the Jets' weakness of a 27th-ranked sack rate allowed. New York's bigger problem is finishing: it ranks 32nd in red-zone points per trip (4.17) against a Chiefs defense ranked sixth there. The Jets' pass defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed, but the Chiefs rank 22nd in red-zone scoring themselves, which complicates laying 9.5. Edge Power leans New York by a wide gap.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week the Jets listed RB Breece Hall questionable (quadricep), T Max Mitchell out (concussion) and DT T'Vondre Sweat out (knee); Kansas City listed CBs L'Jarius Sneed (knee) and Mansoor Delane (shoulder) questionable.
Props to look at:
- Rashee Rice — anytime TD yes +128, yes. He averages 60.8 yards a game with two touchdowns in four games, and the Jets rank 27th in pass EPA allowed and 25th in red-zone points allowed per trip.
4. Rams at Commanders. Washington ranks 29th in late-down success (36.3%) and 25th in success rate, and the Rams' defense ranks fifth on late downs and third in EPA allowed. Flip it and the Rams' offense ranks fourth in success rate against a Washington defense ranked 27th in success allowed and 30th in red-zone points allowed (5.82). Washington's counter is ball security, second in turnover rate. Edge Power sees a wide gap in this game; the side lives in the members report.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Washington listed DTs Daron Payne (foot) and Javon Kinlaw (knee) out and WR Treylon Burks questionable (foot); the Rams listed CB Trent McDuffie (groin) and C Coleman Shelton (hip) questionable, with WR Puka Nacua held out of practice as a rest day.
Props to look at:
- Kyren Williams — anytime TD yes -150, yes. He has six rushing touchdowns in eight games, and Washington ranks 26th in rush EPA allowed and 30th in red-zone points allowed per trip.
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5. Giants at Eagles. Philadelphia's offense ranks 31st in EPA and 31st in success rate with the 29th-ranked explosive-play rate (5.7%), and the 39.5 total reflects it. The Eagles' defense ranks 31st against the run, 31st in sack rate and last in takeaway rate. New York arrives on 14 days of rest against Philadelphia's seven in a division game. Edge Power still leans Philadelphia at +3.5 by a clear gap.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Philadelphia listed WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), CB Jonathan Jones (hamstring) and LB Jihaad Campbell (hamstring) out, with RB Saquon Barkley limited (hamstring). The Giants had no one listed.
Props to look at:
- Cam Skattebo — anytime TD yes +103, yes. He carries the load at 69.7 rushing yards a game, and Philadelphia ranks 31st in rush EPA allowed.
6. Broncos at Panthers. Denver ranks 32nd in late-down success (36.1%) and 29th in success rate, yet third in red-zone points per trip (5.86), and that runs into a Carolina defense ranked 31st in red-zone points allowed. The run game is the other angle: the Panthers rank 10th in rush EPA, the Broncos' defense 29th. Carolina has 10 days of rest to Denver's seven. Edge Power sees a wide gap in this game; the side lives in the members report.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Carolina listed Gs Damien Lewis (knee) and Torricelli Simpkins III (ankle), LB Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and CB Akayleb Evans (triceps) out; Denver listed RB RJ Harvey (knee) and S Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) out, with T Garett Bolles (hip) and WR Jaylen Waddle (chest) questionable.
Props to look at:
- Chuba Hubbard — anytime TD yes -120, yes. He averages 77.1 rushing yards a game with five rushing and two receiving touchdowns in seven games, facing a defense ranked 29th in rush EPA allowed.
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7. Browns at Saints. Cleveland ranks 32nd in sack rate allowed (10.4%), 31st in late-down success and 31st in red-zone points per trip (4.31). New Orleans' defense ranks last in rush EPA allowed and 31st in success rate, but its own offense ranks 32nd in explosive-play rate and 30th in early-down EPA. The Saints come off 14 days of rest into their dome, and Edge Power leans them at -1.5 by a clear gap. Two offenses this limited point toward a grind at 42.5.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Cleveland listed T Tytus Howard questionable (concussion) and DT Mason Graham limited (ankle); New Orleans had no one listed.
Props to look at:
- Quinshon Judkins — anytime TD yes +120, yes. He has three rushing touchdowns in seven games despite 3.39 yards per carry, and he gets the league's worst run defense by EPA.
8. Cowboys at Colts. Dallas ranks fifth in early-down EPA, fifth in late-down success and fifth in red-zone points per trip, with the second-best sack rate allowed (3.3%). Its defense ranks 31st in EPA, pass EPA, explosive-play rate and late-down success allowed (53.0%). Indianapolis can't exploit the pass side (30th in pass EPA) but ranks seventh in rush EPA against a Dallas run defense ranked 28th. Edge Power leans the Colts at +6 only slightly, and the 51.5 total rests on the Dallas offense.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Dallas listed WR George Pickens questionable (shoulder) and WR KaVontae Turpin (ribs) and LB Dee Winters (calf) out; Indianapolis listed CB Justin Walley out (knee) and TE Andrew Ogletree questionable (knee).
Props to look at:
- Jonathan Taylor — anytime TD yes -143, yes. He has eight rushing touchdowns in eight games at 76.2 yards a game, against a run defense ranked 28th and a red-zone defense ranked 24th.
- CeeDee Lamb — anytime TD yes -136, yes. He holds a 31.6% target share with six touchdowns in an offense ranked fifth in red-zone points per trip.
9. Lions at Dolphins. Miami's defense ranks last in EPA, pass EPA, success rate and late-down success allowed (57.5%), and it allows a 12.8 CPOE. Detroit's offense ranks third in pass EPA and third in early-down EPA. The catch is the Lions' defense, 32nd in explosive-play rate allowed and 29th in pass EPA allowed. Edge Power leans Miami at +7 by a wide gap, and both defenses point toward the 50.5 total.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Detroit listed S Kerby Joseph out (knee) and CB Roger McCreary questionable (foot); Miami listed T Kadyn Proctor out (concussion).
Props to look at:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — anytime TD yes -124, yes. He commands a 31.6%-adjacent share at 31.1% with 10.9 targets a game and five touchdowns, against the league's worst pass defense by EPA.
- Jameson Williams — anytime TD yes +147, yes. He has five touchdowns on 44 targets at 62.4 yards a game, and Miami ranks 32nd in pass EPA allowed.
10. Texans at Chargers. The Chargers rank 32nd in EPA, pass EPA, success rate, early-down EPA and turnover rate (3.7%). Houston gives the ball away less than anyone (0.6%), and its pass rush ranks fifth in sack rate against a Chargers line ranked 29th. The Texans also come in on 14 days of rest. Edge Power leans Houston, laying 4.5, by a clear gap, and the 40.5 total respects how little the Chargers have produced.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week the Chargers listed S Derwin James (hamstring), CB Deane Leonard (concussion) and G Kayode Awosika (fibula) out, with CB Donte Jackson questionable (hamstring); Houston had no one listed.
Props to look at:
- Nico Collins — anytime TD yes +120, yes. He has three touchdowns in five games on 7.0 targets a game, and the Chargers' secondary had Derwin James and Deane Leonard out on last week's report.
11. Raiders at 49ers. San Francisco ranks first in EPA, pass EPA, success rate, late-down success, sack rate allowed and red-zone points per trip (6.48). Las Vegas' defense ranks 30th in success rate allowed and 27th in red-zone points allowed. The Raiders can throw (sixth in pass EPA) but can't run (31st in rush EPA) into the second-ranked run defense. Edge Power leans Las Vegas getting 10 by a wide gap, with the 49ers off 14 days of rest.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Las Vegas listed DE Patrick Johnson out (stinger) and G Jackson Powers-Johnson questionable (back); San Francisco had no one listed.
Props to look at:
- Christian McCaffrey — anytime TD yes -260, yes. He has eight rushing touchdowns in seven games for the top red-zone offense, facing a defense ranked 27th in red-zone points allowed.
- Brock Bowers — anytime TD yes +140, yes. He draws 10.3 targets and 91.2 yards a game with five touchdowns, and an offense that can't run will lean on him near the goal line.
12. Cardinals at Seahawks. Seattle's defense allows the lowest explosive-play rate in the league (4.4%) and ranks second in success rate allowed, against an Arizona offense ranked 31st in explosive rate. The leak is the red zone, where Seattle ranks 32nd at 6.31 points allowed per trip. The Seahawks' offense ranks 29th in rush EPA and 28th in turnover rate, and the market has them at -10.5 with a 42 total in this division game. Edge Power sees a wide gap in this game; the side lives in the members report.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Seattle listed T Charles Cross (ankle) and WR Rashid Shaheed (knee) out, LB Uchenna Nwosu doubtful (ankle) and QB Drew Lock questionable (elbow); Arizona listed DT Walter Nolen and G Jon Gaines II out (ankle), with WR Michael Wilson (ribs) and RB Tyler Allgeier (toe) limited.
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13. Packers at Patriots. Green Bay ranks last in rush EPA (-0.256), and New England's run defense ranks seventh. New England's weak spot is the ball, 31st in turnover rate (3.1%), against a Packers defense third in takeaway rate and third in explosive-play rate allowed. Green Bay has 10 days of rest to New England's seven. Edge Power leans the Patriots at -3 by a clear gap.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Green Bay listed C Sean Rhyan (ankle), G Travis Glover (knee) and LB Zaire Franklin (shin) out, with WR Matthew Golden questionable (shoulder); New England listed WR A.J. Brown (ankle) and RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness) questionable after missing practice.
Props to look at:
- Christian Watson — anytime TD yes +125, yes. He has six touchdowns at 88.5 yards a game in a pass-leaning offense that can't run, against a pass defense ranked 23rd in EPA allowed.
14. Buccaneers at Bears. Tampa Bay ranks 31st in pass EPA with a 9.1% sack rate allowed (28th), and Chicago's pass rush ranks second in sack rate while allowing a league-best 26.8% late-down success. The Bucs' defense is the counterweight: second in EPA allowed, first in takeaway rate (3.2%) and third in red-zone points allowed. Chicago ranks 29th in red-zone scoring, so laying six means trusting drives to finish. Edge Power leans the Bears only slightly.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Chicago listed RB Kyle Monangai out (thumb); Tampa Bay listed WR Emeka Egbuka out (foot) and T Luke Goedeke questionable (calf).
15. Bills at Vikings. Strength meets strength in the dome: Buffalo ranks first in rush EPA and explosive-play rate (13.0%) and second in red-zone points per trip. Minnesota's defense ranks first in EPA, pass EPA, success rate, sack rate (10.6%) and red-zone points allowed (3.74). The softer side is the Vikings' offense, 30th in success rate and 30th in sack rate allowed. Edge Power leans Buffalo, laying 3.5, by a clear gap.
Injuries: This week's report isn't out yet. Last week Buffalo listed TE Dalton Kincaid (chest), WR DJ Moore (shoulder) and T Spencer Brown (back) questionable; Minnesota held T Christian Darrisaw out of practice as a rest day.
These are season-to-date team numbers, and lines will move as this week's injury reports land. Graded picks, including every live Edge Power play, are in the members pick report.
Prepared 2026-11-05. Lines and injury statuses move after this is written; props are angles to look at, not picks. The picks themselves are in your dashboard and alerts.