Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders · at Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7 · market: Las Vegas Raiders +4, total 48
Executive summary
The Raiders are a one-dimensional offense with a real dimension. Their passing game rates eighth in EPA per dropback, but the run game sits 31st, and they still run slightly more than expected. Their passing game now faces a Rams defense that ranks ninth against the pass and holds opponents well below expected completion rates.
The Rams are the more efficient team on a per-play basis. They gain 6.0 yards per play and allow 4.8, while the Raiders are underwater at 5.5 gained and 6.1 allowed. Yet Los Angeles is 2-4, has dropped three of its last four, and turns the ball over more often than average against a Las Vegas defense that ranks fifth in takeaway rate.
The read is a game decided on late downs and turnovers rather than early-down efficiency. The Rams own the cleaner profile, but the Raiders have the volatility tools, explosive passing and ball-hawking, that keep a short home underdog live.
01 / Team baseline
| Season to date | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Points scored / game | 27.0 | 22.5 |
| Points allowed / game | 27.0 | 23.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Offensive efficiency (EPA / play) | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| Offensive efficiency rank | 14th | 13th |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 47.5% |
| Defensive efficiency allowed (EPA / play) | +0.03 | -0.05 |
| Defensive efficiency rank | 21st | 9th |
| Defensive success rate allowed | 44.7% | 43.1% |
| Turnover rate (giveaways) | 1.6% | 2.3% |
Season-to-date figures. Efficiency rows are per play from the play-by-play; ranks are among the 32 teams.
02 / The decisive matchup
Las Vegas pass offense versus the Rams' secondary is the hinge. The Raiders post 0.175 EPA per dropback with a sack rate of 3.6 percent, fourth-best in the league. The quarterback is getting the ball out cleanly and efficiently.
The Rams answer with a pass defense allowing negative EPA per dropback and a completion rate 8.7 points below expected. That is a coverage unit that makes throwers work for everything, and it ranks fourth in late-down success allowed at 37.7 percent.
The catch is the Rams' pass rush. Los Angeles sits 28th in sack rate, so the Raiders should have time. If time translates into completions on third down, Las Vegas can sustain drives despite its run game. If the coverage holds anyway, the Raiders are stuck behind the chains with no ground fallback.
03 / Offensive comparison
The Rams' offense is balanced and steady. They rank seventh in success rate at 47.5 percent, fifth in late-down success, and 10th in explosive play rate. Early-down EPA is positive and ranks 10th, which keeps them in manageable situations.
The Raiders get to a similar overall EPA by a different route. Strong passing offsets a rushing attack at -0.247 EPA per carry, and their overall success rate of 42.3 percent ranks only 17th. Early-down EPA is slightly negative, which puts more pressure on the passing game to bail them out on later downs.
Both offenses are middle of the pack in the red zone, with the Rams at 4.96 points per trip and the Raiders at 4.76. Ball security tilts toward Las Vegas, which ranks 14th in turnover rate against the Rams' 22nd.
04 / The trenches
| Line of scrimmage | Las Vegas Raiders offense | Los Angeles Rams defense |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing efficiency (EPA / rush) | -0.25 | -0.04 |
| Rank | 31st | 22nd |
| Early-down efficiency | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| Sack rate (taken / generated) | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| Explosive play rate (made / allowed) | 7.4% | 7.9% |
| Line of scrimmage | Los Angeles Rams offense | Las Vegas Raiders defense |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing efficiency (EPA / rush) | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Rank | 12th | 15th |
| Early-down efficiency | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Sack rate (taken / generated) | 3.6% | 7.0% |
| Explosive play rate (made / allowed) | 8.6% | 8.7% |
On the ground, the Raiders' run game is the weakest unit on the field, but it draws a Rams run defense that ranks only 22nd in rush EPA allowed. That is the one place where Las Vegas could find more than its season baseline suggests.
The Rams' run game ranks 12th and meets a mid-pack Raiders run defense at 15th. Neither side has a dominant edge here, but the Rams are far more likely to use the run to stay on schedule.
In pass protection, both offensive lines are top five in sack rate allowed. The difference is on the other side: the Raiders' defense gets home at 7.0 percent, 12th in the league, while the Rams generate sacks at only 4.1 percent. Las Vegas has the better chance to create a drive-killing negative play.
Key threshold: Watch the Rams' 37.7 percent late-down success allowed: if the Raiders convert at anything near their own 46.4 percent clip, Las Vegas can match the Rams drive for drive; if they fall to the Rams' standard, the Raiders' offense stalls.
05 / The passing game
| Passing game | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Passing efficiency (EPA / dropback) | +0.17 | +0.06 |
| Passing efficiency rank | 8th | 15th |
| Completion % over expected | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Pass rate over expected | -2.5% | 0.1% |
| Late-down success (3rd/4th) | 46.4% | 50.8% |
| Pass defense efficiency allowed | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Pass defense rank | 26th | 9th |
| Late-down success allowed | 45.1% | 37.7% |
The Raiders' pass offense is efficient without being especially explosive, with a 7.4 percent explosive play rate that ranks 19th and a completion rate essentially on expectation. Their production comes from steady gains and a clean pocket rather than chunk plays.
The Rams' passing game is more modest in EPA at 15th but pairs with a stronger overall success rate. They complete slightly above expectation, rarely take sacks, and generate explosives at a 10th-ranked rate.
The Raiders' pass defense is the most exploitable unit in this game. It ranks 26th in pass EPA allowed, permits completions above expectation, and ranks 24th in explosive plays allowed. The Rams should be able to move the ball through the air between the 20s.
06 / Defensive comparison
| Defense | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 27.0 | 23.0 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 43.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Sack rate generated | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| Takeaway rate | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Red-zone points allowed per trip | 5.62 | 4.6 |
| Red-zone defense rank | 27th | 8th |
The Rams' defense is the better unit by most measures, ninth in EPA per play allowed, ninth against the pass, and eighth in red zone points allowed at 4.6 per trip. Its weakness is a lack of disruption, ranking 28th in sack rate and 23rd in takeaways.
The Raiders' defense bends a lot, ranking 25th in success rate allowed and 27th in red zone points allowed at 5.62 per trip. What keeps it competitive is disruption: a 2.7 percent takeaway rate ranks fifth, and the pass rush is above average.
Recent results reflect that profile. The Raiders have allowed 30, 45 and 33 points in their last three games, all losses, while the Rams' last four opponents have scored between 18 and 37.
07 / Where the models sit
| Model | Leans | Gap vs the market |
|---|---|---|
| Edge Power | Las Vegas Raiders | wide |
Edge Power is our only live model for the NFL, and it leans Las Vegas in this game with a wide gap to the market.
That view reflects the Raiders' competitive scoring profile and a Rams team whose efficiency has not translated into wins. The full position, including how we are playing the number, is in the members pick report.
08 / Four game scripts
Raiders win third down — The Rams' pass rush fails to get home, and the Raiders convert enough late downs to stay on the field. With a clean pocket and a sixth-ranked late-down attack against them, the Rams trade scores, and the game stays within one possession into the fourth quarter.
Rams' coverage takes over — Los Angeles plays to its pass-defense profile, the Raiders cannot run to bail themselves out, and drives stall at midfield. The Rams' steady success rate builds a lead, and the Raiders' struggles in red zone defense turn it into a margin beyond a field goal.
Turnover swing — The Raiders' fifth-ranked takeaway rate meets a Rams offense that ranks 22nd in turnover rate. One or two short fields for Las Vegas flip a game the Rams are winning on a per-play basis, a familiar pattern for a 2-4 team that has lost close ones.
Dome shootout — Both passing games find room indoors, the Raiders' defense continues its recent run of allowing 30-plus, and the Raiders' passing attack keeps pace. A high-scoring back-and-forth puts the total in play and makes the final possession decisive against the spread.
09 / Market assessment
| Market | Assessment | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders +4 / Rams -4 | Edge Power shows a wide gap on this spread. The side and staking are covered in the members pick report. | Members only |
| Over 48 | The Raiders' games have been high scoring, and their defense leaks in the red zone, but the Rams' pass defense and slower recent scoring cut against a shootout. | Pass |
| Under 48 | The Rams' late-down defense supports fewer sustained Raiders drives, yet a dome setting and the Raiders' defensive leaks keep the under from being clean. | Pass |
10 / The handicap
The Rams are the more efficient team, with a better yards-per-play gap, a higher success rate and a stronger pass defense. Their record says otherwise, and their weaknesses, a soft pass rush and loose ball security, line up with what the Raiders' defense does well.
The Raiders bring a top-10 passing game and an elite takeaway rate, offset by a nonexistent run game and a defense that struggles to get off the field. Third-down conversions and turnovers are the levers that decide whether this game stays close to the number.
Bottom line: Edge Power has a wide gap on the spread, and the position is in the members report. The total does not offer enough separation in either direction, so we are passing on it publicly.
Prepared 2026-10-25. Figures reflect the information available at preparation and may change. Members get a separate pick report when one of our models fires on a game.