Verdict: Rejected. The classic Wong teaser does not clear today's price. One half of it, underdogs, is still worth watching, but it is not proven.
The question
A Wong teaser moves a spread 6 points through the key numbers 3 and 7: favorites of a little over a touchdown get teased down to a field goal or less, and short underdogs get teased up past a touchdown. For years it was the best-known edge in NFL betting. Books noticed and raised the price. Most now charge about -120 for a two-team 6-point teaser.
At -120, each leg has to win about 73.9% of the time just to break even. So the question is simple: do the legs still win that often?
How we tested it
We used every NFL game from 2020 through the 2026 season so far, graded each possible teaser leg at the closing spread, and counted a push as a loss (the strict way). We held out 2025 and 2026 as a check, so the result is not just fitted to old seasons.
What we found
- All Wong legs together won 75.1% across every season, and 72.1% in 2025-26. That is right around break-even at -120, and below it lately. As a whole, the strategy no longer pays.
- The favorite half is the problem. Teased favorites have won only 57-68% a season since 2022, far below what you need.
- The underdog half held up better: 77.1% across all seasons and 75.5% in the 2025-26 holdout. That is above break-even, but the sample is small enough that luck could explain it. We call that suggestive, not proven.
- Timing matters. The same underdog legs bet at the Monday opener instead of near kickoff lost money. Whatever edge there is lives in the closing number.
- Totals teasers never cleared the bar, and 6.5- and 7-point teasers never earned back their worse price.
What we are doing with it
Nothing on the card. A strategy that is only maybe above break-even does not become a play. We keep tracking teaser legs every week in the background so the underdog half gets a fair live test.
If you bet teasers anyway: skip the favorite leg, wait until close to kickoff, and shop for the best teaser price. A few cents on the price is the difference between break-even and losing. Our free teaser calculator shows what any teaser is worth at your book.